Research
Short reads on the trades, markets, and wallets behind the feed.
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Four fresh wallets, one Fed bet
On Tuesday, four wallets that had never traded on Polymarket before each bought between $8K and $44K of “No” on a March Fed rate-hike market — the last…
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The accumulation you’d miss
One wallet bought the same side of the same Bitcoin market three separate times over eleven days — and unless you were watching the whole series, you’d never…
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Why we cleared the QB bet
Every now and then a big number shows up in the feed that isn’t a signal. Last week a well-known whale dropped $26K on a Chiefs Super Bowl…
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How to read a score in ten seconds
The score is the first thing you see on a signal, and the easiest thing to misunderstand. It’s a 0–100 confidence read — not a prediction of whether…
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The anatomy of a whale
“Whale” gets thrown around so loosely on Polymarket and Kalshi that it’s stopped meaning much. In our scoring, wallet pedigree is one of the five layers — and…
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What ‘preceded news’ actually means
One of the highest-signal flags in the feed is “preceded news.” It means a trade landed in the minutes or hours before a public announcement that moved the…