Find the trades worth a closer look.

Picks AI follows prediction-market trades on Polymarket and Kalshi, then puts the wallet, the market, and the timing in context. See what was flagged and why it matters before you form your own view.

Observable trades. Evidence you can check. No forecast of what happens next.

Signal example

Checked

Economics Polymarket

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

90

signal score
out of 100

Verdict

Monitor

Keep watching for more evidence.

Wallet ratehikes

Bought $19K of No at 17.0%

“No” on “no change” is a bet that rates will change. The 17.0% is the market entry price for that side; the 90 measures the trade’s signal pattern.

Inspect this signal

Details may change in the live product.

One trade is a data point. The useful read connects who traded, what they bought, when they moved, and what might cut against the signal.

See the full feed

What makes a trade worth examining?

Every signal brings five evidence lenses together. A large position alone can be noise. Its size means more when you can compare it with the wallet’s history, the market, and the moment it landed.

Wallet pedigree

What has this wallet done before?

Position size

Is the amount unusual for this wallet or market?

Market timing

When did the trade arrive, and what changed around it?

News adjacency

Was there relevant news near the trade?

Category expertise

Does the wallet have a record in this topic?

A score, a verdict, and a price.

Read them together, but don’t confuse them.

90/100

Signal score

How strongly the observed trade matches the signal criteria. It is not a probability of winning.

Monitor

Verdict

A separate assessment of what deserves attention next. You cannot infer it from a score range.

17.0%

Entry price

The market price of the selected outcome when the wallet bought in, not a Picks AI confidence score.

Values above refer to the dated example shown at the top of this page.

From the research desk.

New reads on the trades, markets, and wallets behind the feed.

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